Women’s World Cup Semifinal Preview | Spain vs Sweden, England vs Australia
NurPhoto/Getty. Pictured: Laia Codina.
The semifinals kick off at the Women’s World Cup on Tuesday with the four teams remaining battling to lift the trophy for the first time in their nation’s history.
The first match is Spain vs Sweden, where I believe the best prop value is a play that cashed for us in the previous round.
Meanwhile, the host nation of Australia battles England in the second game, which could be a game that could go all the way until the final kick of the ball.
This has been an excellent tournament to follow from the beginning, but we can still hope to cash more winning tickets as we come to the final stages. Here is my Women's World Cup semifinal preview ahead of the matches.
World Cup Picks – Spain vs Sweden, England vs Australia
Spain vs Sweden – Spain over 13.5 shots (-110 via bet365)
Outside of the shocking loss to Japan in the group stage, Spain have arguably been the best team in this competition, especially if you look at their advanced metrics.
For starters, this Spanish side boasts the best xGDiff (+14.1) and most expected goals (16.7) at the World Cup, according to fbref.com. La Roja have also allowed just 0.5 xG per 90 minutes defensively, which only trails the United States.
With this dominance, they have been able to control the fixtures and pepper their opponents’ goals with shots, and this leads me to my favorite prop in this game.
I like Spain to top their shots total of 13.5 at -110. This is the same side that has covered this number in 20 of their last 23 games in all competitions, including four of five matches at this tournament.
Sweden are a solid team defensively and can be hard to break down. However, the Swedes have had a pretty easy route to this stage of the competition.
When they had to play the USWNT in the quarterfinals and England at the Euro Championship last summer, both of those nations topped this number of shots.
Spain are going to have more of the ball in this matchup, and as we’ve seen in the past, it should lead to plenty of shots to cash this ticket.
England vs Australia – 0.5U Game to be decided in extra time (+600 via bet365) | 0.5U Game to be decided in penalties (+400 via bet365)
Can England make it to their third final over the last two years? The Lionesses won the Euros last summer and followed that up by defeating Brazil in the 2023 Women’s Finalissima.
However, they won both of those competitions on home soil, and this English side will have to take down host nation Australia on their turf to win this one.
These are two top nations with plenty of talent, which is why I believe this is set up to be a cagey soccer match that we can get at the end of knockout competitions.
I think this game has a great shot to end in a draw, but I’m electing to chase bigger prices than just betting a tie on the three-way line of +225.
So, I’m splitting my unit into two bets. The first will be for the match to be decided in extra time at +600, with the second being the game to go to penalties at +400.
If you look at the last six England fixtures in a knockout round or final, four of those matches have ended in a draw, including their quarterfinal game against Nigeria that went to penalties.
Meanwhile, Australia just went the distance against France to secure their place in this semifinal, and I don’t believe the odds accurately reflect the possibility of that happening again.
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