2023 BMW Championship Picks & Odds: Bet Patrick Cantlay & Corey Conners

2023 BMW Championship Preview

MEMPHIS — No, that’s not an error in the dateline. While Lucas Glover was holding off Patrick Cantlay and other superstars at the PGA Tour’s first playoff event, we were figuratively moving on to Chicago for the 2023 BMW Championship.

When the North Course at Olympia Fields Country Club hosted the U.S. Open two decades ago, it was a largely forgettable excursion for anyone not in Jim Furyk's family. Much of this has to do with the fact that the eventual champion raced out to a two-stroke lead through 36 holes, led by three after 54 and wound up winning by three, essentially removing any potential fireworks that would leave us longingly hoping for the venue to return to the rotation.

The same thing happened when Bryson DeChambeau decimated Derek Bard, 7 & 6, in the final of the 2015 U.S. Amateur.

While Danielle Kang’s one-shot win two years later at the Women’s PGA Championship included more drama, there probably weren’t many outside of the Windy City golf consumers who were clamoring for Olympia Fields to continue hosting world-class events.

All of which made the 2020 edition of the BMW Championship so jarring, as the course perhaps played more like a major championship venue than when it had actually held a major championship, as Jon Rahm held off Dustin Johnson in a thrilling playoff, after only five players broke par for the tournament, and nobody was better than 4-under 276.

Everything about this week’s event screams a best-of-the-best winning it – other than recent trends, which have bucked hard against the top of the odds board.

Using prices from the archives at golfodds.com, over the past month we’ve seen winners with pre-tourney numbers of 125/1 (Brian Harman at The Open), 80/1 (Lee Hodges at the 3M Open) and twice 60/1 (Glover at the Wyndham Championship and FedEx St. Jude Championship).

Anyone who’s been fading the short-priced studs during this span has at least given themselves a chance by being on the right scent.

That said, it doesn’t happen very often during the PGA Tour’s postseason.

On Sunday, Glover became the first winner of a FedEx Cup playoff event outside the top 25 in the Official World Golf Ranking in the past five years.

Granted, the OWGR numbers don’t have as much relevance as they once did, but it’s still a viable delineation. As you can see, all dozen of the previous champions were 24^th or better, with seven ranked inside the top five, suggesting these tournaments have been the domain of the big-name players.

Something’s gotta give (again) this week, as the top 50 on the updated points list make their way to Chicago. Let’s get to the selections.

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BMW Championship Outright Winner (Short Odds)

One player to win the tournament

Patrick Cantlay (+1100)

Going for a three-peat doesn’t quite hold the same reverence when one of those wins took place in Maryland, one was in Delaware, and a third is in Illinois, without any real correlation between them other than the title sponsor’s signage around the golf course.

Then again, maybe it’s just this time of year which excites the unexcitable Patrick Cantlay.

On Sunday, he posted a 6-under 64 to force a playoff with Lucas Glover, only to warm up on the range for a while then immediately hit a tee shot into the water hazard, taking much of the drama out of the proceedings. That might be enough to scare us away from other losers in heartbreaking fashion, but this feels more like the start of something good for Cantlay, rather than the end of it.

Even though he posted ascending (or descending, depending on your perspective) scores of 68-67-66-64 and gained strokes in every major category for the week, it never quite felt like Cantlay was ever playing his absolute best golf. I’m willing to take a chance on the playoff loss just being the tip of the iceberg for what’s about to come over the next two weeks.

On my podcast prior to the FedEx St. Jude, I offered up Cantlay as a nice value to win the entire FedExCup at 16/1. Now that he’s moved into the fifth position in the standings, that play seems even smarter in retrospect. Just as his scores continued improving in Memphis, don’t be surprised if his performance keeps improving as the playoffs continue, as well.

BMW Championship Outright Winner (Long Odds)

One player to win the tournament

Corey Conners (+5000)

We have to be careful to not show too much recency bias toward those who played well on a completely different setup and in completely different conditions at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, but I’d like to believe I would’ve still had Corey Conners in this spot even if he hadn’t gone low in Sunday’s final round. (And yes, I do realize my own recency bias in selecting Cantlay and Conners while warning against any recency bias.)

Closing with a 65, Conners finished T6 at TPC Southwind, though he looked more like, say, Denny McCarthy than himself in doing so. The Canadian putted above field average but hit his irons below field average. In many circumstances, our prognostications are built around those who are in form with their ball-striking and might find a hot week with the flatstick.

I’m turning that around for this pick. If Conners can continue his strong work on the greens – he’s now gained strokes putting in each of his last three starts – at some point soon, the iron play will follow, leading to an even stronger title contention than last week, when his backdoor T6 never really sniffed any chance of winning.

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BMW Championship One-and-Done Picks

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Lucas Glover (+3300)

Can he really do it three weeks in a row? You’d think the 43-year-old would get a bit fatigued at some point, though to be honest, I thought that fatigue would’ve set in after the Wyndham Championship win – so maybe not.

Lucas Glover is now fourth on the FedExCup points list – ahead of everyone not named Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy – clinching more than he ever thought possible just a few months ago.

Still, though, there’s a ton to play for – and if great gobs of money doesn’t motivate a guy who spent last week reading books and doing laundry in his downtime, then a potential spot on his first Ryder Cup team looms extremely large. He’s up to 16^th on that points list, and you’d have to believe that another strong week could force the hand of captain Zach Johnson, if that hand even needs forcing at this point.

From the OAD perspective, there’s an excellent chance you still have him left and an excellent chance you enjoy going with the hot hand. Nobody is hotter right now, obviously.

Tyrrell Hatton (+2500)

I was shocked when on Sunday evening, I mentioned something about Tyrrell Hatton in the TPC Southwind press room to my pod partner Ben Everill, and he remarked that Hatton was in danger of falling out of the top 30 to play in next week’s Tour Championship.

The man who ranked third in SG: Total for most of the season (he’s now fifth) is a victim of the system, which rewards winning peaks more than high levels of consistency. Without a victory, he now sits at 26^th on the FedExCup points list and will need something decent in Chicago to claim that spot in Atlanta.

There’s reason to believe he’ll do it, though. Prior to the start of the FedEx St. Jude, Hatton sat down with Michael Collins and me on our SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show Hitting the Green and jokingly explained that he was still in “detox” after two weeks off.

I have every reason to believe that even a mediocre performance in Memphis (by his standards) should have his competitive juices flowing a bit more for this one.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+4500)

First things first: There might be a bit of a Chicago narrative around Matt Fitzpatrick this week, but it doesn’t fit nearly as well as the Brookline narrative from a year ago.

The Englishman spent exactly one semester at Northwestern before turning pro, so while local media might flock toward him as “one of their own,” it’s more than a small misnomer.

So, why is he listed here? Great question, considering he finished tied for dead last in Memphis and hasn't broken the top 40 in his last four starts. My rationale is that Olympia Fields will be hard, and Fitz loves playing hard golf courses. That’s about it, though.

I won’t be betting him and wouldn’t play him if you’re leading your OAD, but if you’re in catch-up mode and need a guy nobody else will touch, there’s a potential ceiling here.

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BMW Championship Placement Market Bets

Top Five

One player to finish n the top five

Tommy Fleetwood (+375 for top-five finish)

Whether you’re a longtime Tommy Fleetwood outright bettor or just hopped on the bandwagon last week, there’s an excellent chance you weren’t surprised that his 23-foot birdie bid on the final hole to join Sunday’s playoff didn’t find the bottom of the cup.

That’s nothing critical about Tommy’s talent, just a point on how he continues to find new and exciting ways to come agonizingly close to winning PGA Tour events without ever making it happen.

In his last half-dozen starts, he’s now finished 3^rd-10^th-6^th-MC-5^th-2^nd. I love everything about betting Fleetwood to come close yet again and hate everything about betting him to win (though I admittedly might just double-down and do it again anyway).

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Max Homa (+190 for top-10 finish)

It used to be that Max Homa had a reputation which suggested that every time he contended, he won. It was (mostly) true for a while, but Homa has – to his credit – become a more high-level consistent player this year.

Since his victory at the Farmers Insurance Open, he’s posted top 10s in seven of 15 starts. For a player who’s spoken openly about chasing those half-dozen victories, there’s undoubtedly a sense of pride in such consistency.

Granted, on Sunday, it took an eagle on the par-5 16^th hole to make chicken salad of an otherwise disappointing day, but scraping out yet another top 10 should at least feel like a moral victory.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Sahith Theegala (+130 for top-20 finish)

Sahith Theegala was one of the first players I saw when I arrived in Memphis last week. We chatted for a quick minute, and without prompting, he started bemoaning his recent run of middling play, closing the conversation with, “Time for a good one!”

His T13 finish probably wasn’t as good as he would’ve liked, but it’s a massive step in the right direction.

He now enters this week at 31^st on the FedExCup standings, and while cracking the top 30 means a little something to everyone, it can certainly mean more to a young player who will automatically qualify for next year’s major championships and anything else he’d like to play.

There isn’t much value in top-20 plays for a 50-man field, but I can see betting this one up to top 10, as well as using him in DFS markets, too.

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BMW Championship DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Jon Rahm

With elastic pricing and, once again, no cut, DFSers should be able to spend up for one of the more expensive players, and I like Jon Rahm more than Rory McIlroy or Scottie Scheffler, just due to the variance in the other players’ games. Rory is likely to hit more wayward drives; Scottie is likely to miss more short putts.

During a week when pars should be a good score, I’ll take the guy who won here the last time Olympia Fields held this event.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Sungjae Im

I walked with Sungjae Im’s group a decent amount this past week and felt like I witnessed a player who was really close to doing a lot of great things, but he just couldn’t quite put ‘em all together at once. That said, there’s reason to believe his game will shine on a venue where scoring is closer in relation to par.

At TPC Southwind, he posted just four bogeys for the week and none in the final round. More difficult conditions could be exactly what his game needs right now instead of another birdie-fest.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Cam Davis

It wasn’t quite the same bubble as one week earlier, but Cam Davis finished T6 in Memphis to join Hideki Matsuyama as the only players to move from outside the top 50 to inside that number, essentially giving himself a chip and a chair in hopes of claiming a seat at the final table.

He won’t have the same momentum as Lucas Glover coming from his Wyndham Championship victory, yet the same mindset remains, as he’ll be playing with the proverbial house money at the BMW Championship.

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First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Byeong-Hun An (+4000 for FRL)

It’s only a matter of time before the former U.S. Amateur champion and Korn Ferry Tour winner and BMW PGA Championship title-holder finally wins on the PGA Tour, as well.

For now, though, we might be best off – at least in the bigger fields – making only a single-round investment here, as Byeong-Hun An has shown a propensity for hitting the ground running in Thursday rounds. In his last 10 opening rounds, he’s posted a scoring average of 67.80, including seven sub-70 scores while cashing FRL tickets at the Scottish Open and missing by one at the Wyndham Championship.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Kurt Kitayama (+16000)

I’m admittedly pushing all my eggs into one basket with the tough-course narrative, so here’s hoping Olympia Fields does indeed play like a mini-U.S. Open once again. There’s only one player who won the other toughest non-major of this year, and that’s Kurt Kitayama, who vanquished the competition at Bay Hill back in March.

His game hasn’t been great for a while and wasn’t once again on Sunday, when he followed three sub-70 scores with a closing 74, but there’s a serious ceiling here. Perhaps that makes him more fit for an outright longshot at a bigger price, but I do believe his penchant for playing well on hard tracks should give him a leg up in head-to-heads against others toward the bottom of the board.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Collin Morikawa (+2400), Rickie Fowler (+3500), Tom Kim (+3500), Sepp Straka (+8000), Adam Schenk (+14000), Harris English (+10000), Tom Hoge (+22500)