2023 College Football Preseason AP Top 25 Poll: Brett McMurphy’s Ballot vs. Our Betting Power Ratings

At noon ET Monday, there was outrage, debate, name-calling, “your” an idiot tweets, memes … in other words just another day on the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.

But the cause for all the hysteria Monday was what we love here the most: college football — especially the revealing of the Associated Press Top 25 preseason rankings.

I have been a voter in the AP Poll since the Caveman Conference raided the Woolly Mammoth Conference (they wanted a much bigger footprint and bigger TV matchups). Ironically back then, Eve bit into the Apple, killing the Pac-12’s media deals. Those were weird times. Back then, I carved my votes on cave walls.

It’s much different today as my ballot gets cheered or jeered on social media and compared to other rankings, such as the betting power ratings compiled by Collin Wilson, my co-worker here at Action Network.

Collin, one of the brightest minds in college football analytics (is that exactly how you wanted me to phrase that, Collin?), creates his own power ratings for Action Network. So, who has the best rankings?

Luckily for Collin, this is not a competition — as I have never lost to Collin on the golf course. In three 18-hole matches, I have two wins, Collin none. But we did tie in our most recent match last month, and Collin celebrated like Eric Musselman after literally every game (thankfully, Collin kept his shirt on).

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Before we dive into our rankings — so you can see how much better mine are — here’s a couple of nuggets to keep in mind to pick the national champion.

Two-time defending champion Georgia is trying to not only become the first 3-peat champion since Minnesota (1934-36), but the Bulldogs must avoid the preseason No. 1 jinx. In the past 19 seasons, 17 AP preseason No. 1 teams failed to win the national title. Only Alabama in 2017 and USC in 2004 accomplished the feat.

Trying to figure out who will win it? History says it’s either No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Ohio State, No. 4 Alabama, No. 5 LSU, No. 6 USC or No. 7 Penn State. Since 2004, every national champion was ranked among the AP preseason poll’s top seven except for Auburn (2010, started No. 22) and Florida State (2013, started No. 11).

Finally, if you don’t like the preseason top 25, don’t worry. It will change — drastically. Last year, only 10 schools began the season ranked in the preseason AP Poll and also finished the year in the final AP rankings: Georgia, Michigan, Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Pitt, Notre Dame, Oregon, USC and Utah.

Regarding me and Collin, the biggest differences between my AP preseason ballot and Collin’s power ratings: Florida State (Brett No. 3, Collin No. 10); Texas Tech (Brett No. 11, Collin No. 18); Oregon State (Brett No. 13, Collin No. 28); Tennessee (Brett No. 15, Collin No. 41); Texas (Brett No. 20, Collin No. 4); Utah (Brett No. 22, Collin No. 6).

Also, Collin’s power ratings have No. 15 Oklahoma, No. 21 Kentucky, No. 22 Texas A&M, No. 24 Arkansas and No. 25 Baylor. I didn’t rank any of those schools.

Here’s my ballot and his power ratings. And, I’m sure you’ll agree, like our golf matches, I’ll come out the winner.

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