NCAAF Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6:30 PM Navy NAV 299 Notre Dame ND 300 | +20.5 -20.5 | +20.5 -20.5 | +20.5-110 -20.5-105 | 30%70% | ||||
9:30 PM UTEP TEP 309 Jax State JVS 310 | -1 +1 | -1 +1 | -1-110 +1-108 | 23%77% | ||||
11:00 PM UMASS UMASS 301 N. Mexico St NMS 302 | +10 -10 | +8 -8 | +8-110 -7.5-109 | 52%48% | ||||
11:00 PM Ohio OHI 307 San Diego St SDSU 308 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3 -3 | +3.5-110 -3-105 | 67%33% | ||||
11:30 PM Hawaii HAW 311 Vanderbilt VAN 312 | +18 -18 | +17.5 -17.5 | +18-110 -17.5-105 | 16%84% | ||||
12:00 AM San Jose St SJS 305 USC USC 306 | +30 -30 | +30.5 -30.5 | +30.5-110 -29.5-110 | 13%87% | ||||
1:00 AM FIU FIU 303 LA Tech LT 304 | +9.5 -9.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-110 -10.5-105 | 31%69% | ||||
11:00 PM Kent State KNT 141 UCF UCF 142 | +34.5 -34.5 | +34.5 -34.5 | +34.5-105 -34.5-110 | 31%69% | ||||
11:00 PM Elon ELO Wake Forest WF | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM Rhode Island RIL Georgia State GST | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM St. Francis (PA) STF W. Michigan WMC | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM NC State NCST 143 UConn UCONN 144 | -16.5 +16.5 | -15 +15 | -14.5-110 +16.5-115 | 16%84% | ||||
12:00 AM Nebraska NEB 145 Minnesota MIN 146 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7 -7 | +7-105 -7-110 | 51%49% | ||||
12:00 AM South Dakota SD Missouri MIZ | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM NC A&T NAT UAB UAB | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM Florida FLA 147 Utah UTH 148 | +9.5 -9.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-110 -7.5-108 | 70%30% | ||||
12:00 AM AR-Pine Bluff APB Tulsa TSA | N/A N/A | |||||||
2:00 AM Southern Utah SUT Arizona St ASU | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:30 PM Howard HOW E. Michigan EMC | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM C. Michigan CMC 151 Michigan St MSU 152 | +15 -15 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5-110 -14-110 | 41%59% | ||||
11:00 PM Miami (OH) MOH 149 Miami (FL) MFL 150 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17.5 -17.5 | +18-110 -17-110 | 54%46% | ||||
11:30 PM Louisville LOU 153 GA Tech GT 154 | -8.5 +8.5 | -8 +8 | -7.5-110 +7.5+100 | 69%31% | ||||
12:00 AM Missouri St MIZST Kansas KAN | N/A N/A | |||||||
3:00 AM Stanford STA 155 Hawaii HAW 156 | -10 +10 | -8 +8 | -7.5-110 +8.5-112 | 12%88% | ||||
4:00 PM Virginia UVA 215 Tennessee TEN 216 | +28 -28 | +28 -28 | +27.5-104 -28-110 | 54%46% | ||||
4:00 PM E. Carolina ECU 159 Michigan MICH 160 | +36.5 -36.5 | +35 -35 | +34.5-109 -34.5-110 | 35%65% | ||||
4:00 PM Utah State UTS 183 Iowa IOW 184 | +21 -21 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5-104 -23-110 | 4%96% | ||||
4:00 PM Fresno State FRE 167 Purdue PUR 168 | +6 -6 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-110 -5-110 | 19%81% | ||||
4:00 PM Colorado COL 187 TCU TCU 188 | +20 -20 | +20.5 -20.5 | +21-110 -20.5-109 | 49%51% | ||||
4:00 PM Arkansas St ARKS 163 Oklahoma OKL 164 | +33.5 -33.5 | +33.5 -33.5 | +33.5-109 -32.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM Ball State BALL 177 Kentucky KEN 178 | +26.5 -26.5 | +26.5 -26.5 | +26.5-110 -25.5-110 | 7%93% | ||||
4:00 PM LA Tech LT 221 SMU SMU 222 | +16.5 -16.5 | +17 -17 | +17-110 -17-110 | 50%50% | ||||
4:00 PM Bowling Green BGN 161 Liberty LIB 162 | +12 -12 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-110 -12-110 | 25%75% | ||||
4:00 PM N. Illinois NIL 173 Boston Col BC 174 | +10.5 -10.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-105 -9-110 | 61%39% | ||||
4:00 PM Long Island LIUCWP Ohio OHI | N/A N/A | |||||||
5:00 PM Robert Morris RM Air Force AF | N/A N/A | |||||||
6:00 PM N. Iowa UNI Iowa State ISU | N/A N/A | |||||||
6:00 PM Mercer MER Ole Miss MIS | N/A N/A | |||||||
6:00 PM East Tenn ETSU Jax State JVS | N/A N/A | |||||||
6:00 PM Akron AKR 171 Temple TEM 172 | +10 -10 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-110 -10.5-105 | 50%50% | ||||
7:00 PM Portland State PRST Oregon ORE | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM Ohio State OSU 165 Indiana IU 166 | -27.5 +27.5 | -28.5 +28.5 | -28.5-105 +27.5-105 | 49%51% | ||||
7:30 PM Towson TWN Maryland MAR | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM E. Kentucky EKY Cincinnati CIN | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM Buffalo BUF 181 Wisconsin WIS 182 | +23 -23 | +25.5 -25.5 | +27-110 -24.5-110 | 23%77% | ||||
7:30 PM Rice RICE 209 Texas TEX 210 | +35 -35 | +35 -35 | +35-110 -35.5-105 | 25%75% | ||||
7:30 PM UMASS UMASS 203 Auburn AUB 204 | +39.5 -39.5 | +39.5 -39.5 | +39.5-110 -38.5-110 | 27%73% | ||||
7:30 PM TN State TNST Notre Dame ND | N/A N/A | |||||||
+15.5 -15.5 | +14.5 -14.5 | +15.5-110 -14.5-108 | 27%73% | |||||
7:30 PM Wofford WOF Pittsburgh PIT | N/A N/A | |||||||
+14 -14 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5-109 -13.5-105 | 64%36% | |||||
7:30 PM Gardner-Webb GWB App State APP | N/A N/A | |||||||
N/A N/A | ||||||||
8:00 PM W. Carolina WC Arkansas ARK | N/A N/A | |||||||
-9.5 +9.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5-110 +8-113 | 80%20% | |||||
8:00 PM Colgate CGT Syracuse SYR | N/A N/A | |||||||
8:00 PM Bryant U BRY UNLV UNLV | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM TN-Martin TNM Georgia UGA | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM SC State SCS Charlotte CHA | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM Monmouth MNM FL Atlantic FAU | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM Albany ALB Marshall MSH | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM Citadel CIT GA Southern GSO | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:30 PM Nevada NEV 195 USC USC 196 | +38 -38 | +38 -38 | +38-110 -38.5-109 | 17%83% | ||||
10:30 PM Maine UMAINE FIU FIU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM UTSA UTSA 211 Houston HOU 212 | +2 -2 | -0.5 +0.5 | +1.5-120 +1-115 | 66%34% | ||||
11:00 PM Texas St TXST 157 Baylor BAY 158 | +26.5 -26.5 | +26 -26 | +26.5-110 -25.5-110 | 26%74% | ||||
11:00 PM SE Missouri SEM K State KST | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM C. Arkansas UCA OK State OKS | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM New Mexico NM 205 Texas A&M TXAM 206 | +39.5 -39.5 | +38.5 -38.5 | +37.5-109 -38.5-105 | 25%75% | ||||
11:00 PM Alabama A&M AAM Vanderbilt VAN | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM B-Cookman BCU Memphis MEM | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM Washington St WST 193 Colorado St CSU 194 | -16 +16 | -12.5 +12.5 | -11.5-110 +12.5-110 | 16%84% | ||||
11:00 PM Alcorn State ALCST Southern Miss USM | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM Stephen FA SAU Troy TRY | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM Army ARM 217 LA-Monroe ULM 218 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5-105 +8-110 | |||||
11:30 PM UNC NC 179 S. Carolina SC 180 | -1.5 +1.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-106 | 60%40% | ||||
11:30 PM Toledo TOL 185 Illinois ILL 186 | +10 -10 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-110 -9-113 | 36%64% | ||||
11:30 PM West Virginia WVU 223 Penn State PSU 224 | +19.5 -19.5 | +20.5 -20.5 | +20.5-105 -20.5-110 | 47%53% | ||||
11:30 PM Middle Tenn MTS 201 Alabama BAMA 202 | +38 -38 | +39.5 -39.5 | +39-109 -39-110 | |||||
11:30 PM NW State NWS LA-Lafayette ULL | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM Texas Tech TT 191 Wyoming WYO 192 | -14 +14 | -14 +14 | -13.5-110 +14.5-110 | 51%49% | ||||
12:00 AM S. Alabama SAB 219 Tulane TUL 220 | +6.5 -6.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7+100 -7-110 | |||||
12:00 AM Old Dominion ODU 175 VA Tech VT 176 | +14 -14 | +14 -14 | +14.5-110 -14-110 | |||||
1:00 AM W. Illinois WIL N. Mexico St NMS | N/A N/A | |||||||
1:00 AM Incarnate Word IW UTEP TEP | N/A N/A | |||||||
2:00 AM N. Arizona NAZ Arizona ARI | N/A N/A | |||||||
2:15 AM Sam Houston SHS 189 BYU BYU 190 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23 -23 | +23.5-110 -23-110 | |||||
2:30 AM Coastal Car CC 199 UCLA UCLA 200 | +15.5 -15.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5-110 -15.5-105 | 29%71% | ||||
2:30 AM Idaho State IDS San Diego St SDSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM Northwestern NW 169 Rutgers RUT 170 | +5 -5 | +7 -7 | +7-109 -6.5-110 | 14%86% | ||||
7:30 PM Oregon St ORS 233 San Jose St SJS 234 | -17 +17 | -16.5 +16.5 | -16.5-110 +16.5-105 | |||||
11:30 PM LSU LSU 231 Florida St FSU 232 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +3-107 | 73%27% | ||||
12:00 AM Clemson CLE 235 Duke DUK 236 | -12 +12 | -13 +13 | -12.5-110 +13-110 | 55%45% |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAF bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAF projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAF Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAF projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college football handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAF projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in NCAAF betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building college football projections to be aware of news and injuries.
The most important position in the football is quarterback, and it's not unreasonable to see a line move 4-5 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out on a Saturday morning. Other positions are less valuable to the spread, which might surprise a casual gambler. Notably, running backs -- even the very best ones in the country-- rarely move betting lines if they're unable to play for whatever reason.
Using those advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense/defense/special teams, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAF Projections
Our NCAAF experts will provide consensus projections for every college football game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college football: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.
Key numbers are also important for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.
Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.
You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.