Yankees vs. Braves Odds & Picks: Why to Bet Monday’s Underdog
New York Yankees/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge
Yankees vs. Braves Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 9 -115o / -105u | +158 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 9 -115o / -105u | -190 |
After consecutive losses in Miami, the Yankees now hold just a 6.2% chance of claiming a playoff spot, per FanGraphs. They will look to bounce back as heavy underdogs Monday versus the league-leading Braves in a matchup pitting Clarke Schmidt (4.23 ERA, 115 IP) against Max Fried (2.50 ERA, 36 IP).
Schmidt's second half has been a rare positive for the Yankees in a year offering little else in the way of encouragement to fans.
Schmidt has pitched to an ERA of 3.67 across 27 innings since the All-Star Break, with a stellar WHIP of 0.96. Pitching models are quite high on Schmidt's work this season. He owns a Stuff+ of 103, with Location+ of 105.
New York's bullpen continues to be a strength as well. Over the last 30 days it has pitched to a third-best xFIP of 3.80, with an ERA of 3.98.
The Yankees' offense has stabilized as well, relative to other parts of the season, especially with Aaron Judge back in the lineup. Over the last 30 days they have hit to a wRC+ of 100. Their 0.48 BB/K ratio shows their process at the plate has improved, as well as their 36.8% hard-hit rate, which ranks fifth in that time frame.
A 60-58 record this far into the season feels like a disaster for the Yanks, but it's also important to keep in mind that they play in an AL East division with four other teams well over .500 when considering their relative strength.
Max Fried offered some question marks in his second start back in the rotation versus Pittsburgh, allowing four earned runs across four innings. His stuff is currently rating slightly worse than last season, with a 95 Stuff+ and a 99 Location+.
His 2.04 xERA is highly impressive, as is his 2.88 xFIP. Considering where his stuff is rating, however, it does seem unlikely that he will pitch to better splits than we saw a year ago over a larger sample of innings.
Offensively the Braves continue to put up incredible numbers. Over the last 30 days they have hit to a wRC+ of 136, with the top hard-hit rate in the entire league.
Yankees vs. Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
This matchup sets up as a good time to buy low on Schmidt and sell high on Fried with the Yankees priced at +195 to win.
Schmidt has put up solid results of late and is seemingly beginning to harness his high quality arsenal and allow fewer earned runs. Fried is at the other end of the spectrum, and he hasn't entirely proven himself since returning two starts ago.
Last night's disaster aside, New York's bullpen has still been one of the best in baseball recently. That strength can help them keep this matchup close as a heavy underdog, or close it out if Schmidt manages to exit with a lead.
The Braves had a late getaway after taking on the Mets at Citi Field on Sunday Night Baseball, while the Yankees played in the afternoon in Miami.
There is also a chance that Atlanta finally rests some key pieces (on top of Albies), and it's a little more likely the Yanks could gain line value when lineups are released.
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