World Cup Picks | Best Bets For USA vs Sweden, Netherlands vs South Africa
DeFodi Images/Getty. Pictured: Elin Rubensson.
After a thrilling end to the group stage, the Round of 16 kicks off this weekend at the FIFA Women’s World Cup with two matches that I have picked my favorite betting props from.
My first play comes in the fixture between the Netherlands and South Africa, where I believe the Dutch will have a great advantage on corners.
Meanwhile, the only Sunday game features the United States Women’s National Team and Sweden, who both rank in the top 3 of FIFA’s rankings. I do think this could be one of the best games of the tournament to go along with the drama of a knockout match.
The Action Network has had you covered with our favorite props throughout this competition, and we’ll continue with these matches on Saturday and Sunday.
World Cup Picks – Netherlands vs South Africa, USA vs Seden
Netherlands vs South Africa – Netherlands -3 Corners (+100 via FanDuel)
In one of the tournament's surprises, South Africa advanced out of a group that included two nations that were in the top 30 in FIFA rankings in Argentina and Italy.
Banyana Banyana sat back and hit teams on the counter in every match, conceding over 60% possession and 15 shots per game to their opponents.
This should play right into the hands of the Netherlands in this Round of 16 fixture, who won Group E over the USA with a +8 goal difference.
A play I have been targeting in these sorts of games has been in the corners’ market, and I am returning to that here by taking the Dutch on the corners spread of -3 at even money at FanDuel.
If you look at similar matches in this competition — where a dominant nation played a much lesser team — this same play would've cashed in 15 of 17 games. This includes the Orange Lionesses covering this margin against Vietnam (9-3) and Sweden topping South Africa in the opener, 13-1.
I do expect the African side to be competitive on the scoreboard, but I do still feel that the Dutch will have more attacking chances leading to corners.
USA vs Sweden – Both Teams to Score – Yes (+100 via bet365)
If you look at all of the headlines following the group stage, it's all been negative surrounding this U.S. team. This was the first time ever at a World Cup that the USWNT didn’t win two games in their group. That led to them finishing second behind the Netherlands to set up this juicy matchup.
However, it wasn’t all bad for the Americans. The USA generated 7.7 expected goals and 16 big scoring chances over the three matches, while holding opponents to just 0.233 xG per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.
As for Sweden, there wasn’t much to be negative about, as they won all three matches and posted an xGDiff of +5.3. This was also the same side that scored multiple goals in each game on an average of 2.567 expected goals per match.
When you add it all up, I really like the price being offered at bet365 for both teams to find the back of the net at even money, which I would play to -120 odds.
One negative for this bet is the fact that USA midfielder Rose Lavelle will be suspended for this match due to picking up her second yellow card in the final game of the group stage. However, there should still be plenty of attacking talent on the field for both nations to cash this bet.
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