MLB Odds, Picks & Prediction for Tigers vs. Marlins
Via Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: Reese Olson #45 of the Detroit Tigers throws a pitch during the first inning H at T-Mobile Park on July 16, 2023 in Seattle, Washington.
Tigers vs. Marlins Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+126 | 7.5 +100/ -122 | +1.5 -172 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -148 | 7.5 +100/ -122 | -1.5 +142 |
Braxton Garrett had been overachieving for much of the early part of this season, but the regression monster has hit him pretty hard lately with a 7.85 ERA in July over the course of 18 1/3 innings. He's allowed 16 earned runs this month, which is pretty abhorrent. These types of performances are not what the Miami Marlins need to keep a National League Wild Card spot in their grasps.
The Detroit Tigers will counter him with Reese Olson, who is shockingly similar with his batted-ball profile and how he approaches hitters. However, Olson's results have at least been in line with expectations in the last month with a 4.15 ERA over 17 1/3 innings pitched.
Given that the Marlins and Tigers both have not fared well at the plate lately, the Tigers should have the edge over the Marlins in this ballgame.
Detroit Tigers
Olson is one of the Tigers’ top prospects, even if he has not quite put it together yet. His Chase Rate ranks in the 84th percentile, and he also carries a 5.6% Walk Rate against a 25.1% Strikeout Rate.
These numbers are encouraging, but he is allowing an 11.3% Barrel Rate and a 90.6 MPH Average Exit Velocity. His Hard-Hit Rate does rank in the middle of the league, so he at least restricts batters to some weak contact on occasion.
The Tigers have not been the best hitting team off of lefties on the season. In July, they have an 89 wRC+ over 203 plate appearances off of southpaws.
They have seven batters with a .320+ xwOBA, though, so this is actually pretty impressive, despite the smaller sample size. This should be enough against a pitcher who allows some loud contact, like Garrett.
Notably, Riley Greene has been hot since returning from the Injured List:
Riley Greene is blossoming before our eyes. In his 14 games off of the IL: .392/.446/.596
On the season: .315/.379/.469 (139 wRC+)
Groundball rate has dropped as year has progressed. Still a bit more in zone whiff than desired, but that's fine with elite EV's and more lift. pic.twitter.com/ML5muKR9xd
— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) July 26, 2023
The Tigers relief staff has a 4.35 xFIP in July. They have four arms below the 4.00 mark, which should be fine, especially if Olson can permit hard contact less often and continue striking out batters instead of issuing free passes. If that is the case, he will put less of a strain on the bullpen.
Miami Marlins
Garrett has a the same xERA as Olson at 4.63. Similarly, he has a higher-than-average Strikeout Rate than Walk Rate at 26.7% against 3.8%, respectively. His Barrel Rate is 10.2% with an Average Exit Velocity of 91.4 MPH.
His Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the sixth percentile, so unlike Olson, he is allowing harder contact more often.
The Marlins also have seven bats off of righties in July with a .320+ xwOBA. Their wRC+ this month (again, off of righties) is 87 with a similarly low Walk Rate to Detroit at under 7%. This should not designate the Marlins as favorites over the Tigers.
In relief, the Marlins are better with a 3.99 July xFIP. They just added Jorge López from the Minnesota Twins for Dylan Floro, but López owns a poor 4.69 xFIP on the month. The Fish have only two other relievers below a 4.00 xFIP this month, so Detroit might have the edge here.
Tigers vs. Marlins Betting Pick
Olson has been the better starter between the two in this ballgame. Detroit’s bullpen also has had more expected lockdown relief options than the Marlins, especially with Dylan Floro on the Twins now.
Since Detroit has produced similar numbers at the plate and also has a similarly complete lineup to the Marlins, taking the underdog in this matchup is the correct call. Olson has shown his ability to remain consistent, while Garrett is heading the wrong way.
Take the Tigers on the moneyline at +155 and bet them to -110.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline | Play to -110 |
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