Stanley Cup Final Game 5 Odds, Pick: Panthers vs Golden Knights Prediction

Stanley Cup Final Game 5: Panthers vs. Golden Knights Odds

Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final gets underway on Tuesday evening as the Vegas Golden Knights host the Florida Panthers at T-Mobile Arena.

After Florida dramatically secured a comeback overtime victory in Game 3, Vegas responded with a gritty 3-2 win in Game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead.

Will the Golden Knights close out the series in Game 5 and raise the Stanley Cup, or can the Panthers force a Game 6?

Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Panthers vs. Golden Knights betting pick and prediction.

Vegas Golden Knights

As someone who's riding a 25/1 preseason ticket from our 2022-23 season preview, I absolutely love how the Golden Knights have looked in this series.

And before I get accused of bias, I wouldn't mind at all if the Panthers pull off the miraculous comeback and hoist the Cup. They're an entertaining club to watch, and Matthew Tkachuk is one of my favorite players in the league.

With that said, the Knights are the superior team. They dominated each of the first two games on home ice, winning by a combined score of 12-4.

Then they traveled to Florida for Game 3 and controlled that contest for the first 57 minutes. That was before Tkachuk got net-front and buried a loose puck with Sergei Bobrovsky pulled and time winding down in the third period.

The Panthers then had to kill a big penalty before Carter Verhaeghe eventually secured the game-winner, but we need to remember this is a game that Vegas dominated for the first 57 minutes. In fact, according to MoneyPuck, the Knights win that game 70.6% of the time after 1,000 simulations.

So how did Vegas respond to Florida stealing that game?

By securing a massive 3-2 victory to tilt the series back in its favor.

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Florida Panthers

In my Game 4 preview, I stated that the most dangerous part about the Panthers is that they believed in themselves after stealing Game 3. However, that momentum is now completely out the window as they are back in Las Vegas and on the brink of elimination.

To make matters worse, Tkachuk is clearly injured. He is listed as questionable for Game 5 – though I fully expect him to be in the lineup when the puck drops.

But even if he plays, how effective will he be? Tkachuk was injured with an upper-body injury following Game 3, and he was clearly impacted in Game 4, barely participating in warmups.

The injury, the nature of which is still being held under wraps, got worse as Game 4 progressed, leading to Tkachuk missing a big chunk of the third period. It is clearly a big injury if he missed a single shift (let alone multiple), given how tough he is and how everyone plays through ailments during a Cup Final.

A battered Tkachuk will cripple the Panthers. He has been their heart and soul during this playoff push. He is the only reason they are even in this spot outside of Bobrovsky.

Golden Knights vs. Panthers Pick

Speaking of Bobrovsky, the one area many thought the Panthers would outduel the Knights was in net. Prior to the Cup Final, Bobrovsky was putting up historic numbers.

However, he’s finally come back down to earth in this series, allowing 13 goals on 104 shots for a fade-worthy .875 SV% through four games.

Meanwhile, Adin Hill continues to defy the odds for Vegas. A career backup, Hill is 10-4 in the postseason with a .934 SV% and 2.11 GAA. How sustainable those numbers are remains to be seen, but until he shows otherwise, I have no issue continuing to back Vegas.

Florida has trailed Vegas in xGoals% in all four games, which is not all that surprising given that the Knights are much deeper, boast a strong blue line and are more experienced in deep playoff pushes.

The Pick: Pick: Golden Knights (-165 at DraftKings) | Play to -175