Reds vs Nationals Pick Today | MLB Odds, Predictions for Tuesday, July 4
Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Stephenson and Spencer Steer.
Reds vs. Nationals Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -137 | 10.5 -105 / -117 | -1.5 +110 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+114 | 10.5 -105 / -117 | +1.5 -139 |
The Cincinnati Reds will likely employ a bullpen day on the Fourth of July matinee against the Washington Nationals, who are set to send Patrick Corbin to the mound.
Corbin has been fortunate lately as one of the otherwise most fade-worthy pitchers in all of MLB. His xERA is insurmountably higher than his ERA and he permits loud contact.
Both bullpens are absolutely abhorrent, so with Cincinnati going with a bullpen game throughout and Washington employing a starting pitcher not likely to last long, the handicap here might seem obvious.
Cincinnati Reds
As of this writing, it appears Brett Kennedy will get things started for Cincinnati on a day where we're likely to see a revolving door of relievers.
Kennedy last appeared in the majors with the Padres in 2018 and has posted a 3.71 ERA in eight starts for Louisville in Triple-A this season. Regardless of how he performs, it's unlikely Cincinnati gives him all that long of a leash.
The Reds have struggled a bit against lefties since June 1. They own a team wRC+ of 95, but they do have a .745 OPS. However, they have eight active bats above a .320 xwOBA when facing a lefty on the season. This is pretty impressive and should give Corbin some trouble.
Jake Fraley and Elly De La Cruz have notably not done well when a lefty pitches, but Corbin is one of the weaker options they could face.
In relief, the Reds have been terrible, especially since June 1. They have a 5.53 xFIP since then, and they have only one arm below a 4.00 xFIP in Fernando Cruz. Their 18.2% strikeout rate in relief with a 11.2% walk rate is at the bottom of the barrel.
Alexis Díaz has a 2.19 ERA, so this is the other more trustworthy option, but that essentially leaves four-to-five innings of middle relief work this team has to fill.
Washington Nationals
Corbin has a 4.66 ERA in the month of June, but on the season, he has been blown up a few times. His 4.84 ERA hides that his xERA comes in at 6.21 before this game. His average exit velocity allowed is 91.3 mph, his hard hit rate allowed is 45.8%, his strikeout rate is only 15.3% and his walk rate is 6.7%.
Even if he is not issuing free passes, teams are crushing him and he rarely misses bats.
The Nats have cooled off since June began. They have an 86 wRC+ with a 4.8% walk rate. However, they do have a sub-20% strikeout rate, which can help when playing a team with a short pitching staff. They do have seven bats above .320 xwOBA on the season, so this should help against the Reds. Even if they do not look as hot as the beginning of the season, they should be able to push some runs across against the Reds.
The Nats also have a horrid bullpen. They own a 5.19 xFIP since June 1 with only an 18.2% strikeout rate and 11.3% walk rate. They will give the Reds free passes and not miss bats in the process.
Reds vs. Nationals Betting Pick
Both of these pitching staffs are bad. The Reds have a little bit of an excuse with the injuries, but either way, runs will score in this game.
Even though the Nationals have not been the best over the last month or so, they have enough to score off of the Reds. Patrick Corbin is awful, and the Reds will prove that.
Take the over in this game to 11 and -120.
Pick: Over 10.5 (-105) | play to 11 (-120)
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