Reds vs Nationals Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Expert Picks for Thursday, July 6
Pictured: Elly De La Cruz. (Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)
Reds vs. Nationals Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -102 | 9.5 -120 / -102 | -1.5 +152 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -116 | 9.5 -120 / -102 | +1.5 -184 |
The Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals meet in a Thursday matinee. Brandon Williamson will start for the Reds and MacKenzie Gore will get the ball for the Nationals.
Neither has been particularly effective.
Williamson did fine in his last outing, but hasn't shown much month-to-month growth. Gore started the season well, but allowed seven earned runs in his most recent outing and seems to be on the wrong trajectory.
Meanwhile, Washington's bats have cooled off. The Reds are still above average and should be favorites in this one. They should win this game.
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Cincinnati Reds
Williamson has only really excelled in spin rate with his curveball — everything else is a concern right now for the 25-year-old southpaw. He ranks in the 32nd percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 14th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate. His walk rate is over 9% and his strikeout rate is below 19%. His xSLG is over .500 and nothing indicates a turnaround. That said, his 5.57 ERA and 6.15 xERA are only slightly worse than Gore’s.
The offenses provide the largest discrepancy between these teams as the Reds have been great over the past month. They have an above average 104 wRC+ with a .776 OPS and a 9.7% walk rate. On the season, they have seven active bats with an xwOBA over .335 and should be in solid shape against a struggling Gore. Elly De La Cruz and Matt McClain have put the Reds on everyone’s playoff radar in the weak National League Central.
ELLY DE LA CRUZ JUST HIT FOR THE CYCLE 🤯
The first cycle for the Cincinnati Reds since 1989 🙌pic.twitter.com/PgzGsbuh0L
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) June 24, 2023
In relief, the Reds only have one arm with an xFIP under 4.00 — Fernando Cruz. Since Williamson often walks hitters, this is a concern. However, the bats should outweigh Cincinnati's poor pitching.
Washington Nationals
If it were still April or early May, backing Gore — with how the Nationals were hitting lefties — would have made sense. However, things have changed. Gore now holds a 4.48 ERA against a 5.10 xERA with a Barrel Rate similar to Williamson. His Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 21st percentile and his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 10th percentile. He can strike hitters out at a 27.9% clip, but is walking hitters at a 10.2% rate.
The Nationals lineup owns a 92 wRC+ and a .720 OPS over the past month against lefties. They are also only walking 5.5% of the time. Yes, they have five active bats with a xwOBA over .330 off lefties, but Victor Robles is injured. The bottom of the order struggles and won't have enough to beat the Reds.
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Reds vs. Nationals Betting Pick
The Reds are the better team and their offense negates Gore’s small edge over Williamson. Williamson has only allowed more than three earned runs once since the beginning of May, while Gore has been far more inconsistent. Gore could also leave this game before Williamson, which would negate the Nationals’ slight edge in relief. Take the Reds at -102 and play them to -130. They should be favorites in this ballgame.
Pick: Reds Moneyline | Play to -130 |
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