Rays vs Rangers Odds, Pick, Prediction | Expert Bet for Total
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Shane McClanahan
Rays vs. Rangers Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -136 | 8.5 -122 / +100 | -1.5 +116 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+116 | 8.5 -122 / +100 | +1.5 -140 |
Shane McClanahan of the Tampa Bay Rays returns from the injured list on Monday in a high-quality matchup against Dane Dunning and the Texas Rangers.
McClanahan has pitched to an ERA of 2.53 in 96 innings this season, and was priced as the Cy Young favorite at the time of his back injury.
McClanahan is a slight favorite versus Dunning, who owns a 2.84 ERA across 92 innings.
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Tampa Bay Rays
With the Orioles now sitting only a game back in a hotly contested AL East race, McClanahan's return comes at an important time for the Rays.
It will be interesting to see early on in this matchup how McClanahan's velo and stuff is rating. Prior to his addition the IL after exiting his July 30th start, his arsenal had not been rating as well as usual, which was reflected with more modest results.
Over McClanahan's last five starts, his Stuff+ rating dropped down to 108. That's still a dominant clip, but a considerable tick below what he has usually offered. Over his last 31 innings he owns an ERA of 3.77 with a WHIP of 1.29, so his actual results do agree with the idea suggested by FanGraphs pitching model that he is not offering the same quality of stuff.
McClanahan has also fared worse in splits on the road this season. In 48 1/3 innings on the road he owns a 1.41 WHIP, and a 3.17 ERA.
The Rays bullpen has pitched to a seventh-worst xFIP of 4.53 over the last 30 days, which has been hidden by a .258 BABIP.
The Rays lineup should be at full strength for this matchup with no position players on the IL. They have tailed off over the last month, but still own a the top-ranked wRC+ in baseball versus right-handed pitching at 121.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers' dominant lineup should also be at full strength for this matchup. They lead the league with 6.33 runs per game on their home field, and have also pounded left-handed pitching. They own the second-best wRC+ in baseball versus left-handed pitching at 132.
Dunning is one of the more clear regression candidates in the league currently. He owns a 2.83 ERA, but an xERA of 4.83 with an xFIP of 4.58. He has stranded 77.8% of runners, and allowed a BABIP of just .268.
Even for pitchers with elite stuff, Dunning's strand rate and BABIP aren't sustainable. He does not have that, however, and has pitched to a Stuff+ rating of only 80, and a Pitching+ rating of just 96.
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Rays vs. Rangers Betting Pick
Dunning is one of the more clear regression candidates in the league, and will be met by a strong Rays offense Monday. There is certainly a world where Tampa's scrappy lineup can string together hits and put together a lofty total in this matchup.
It is hard to know what to expect from McClanahan in this matchup in terms of form and length. The Rangers are for sure fielding one of the best offenses in baseball, though, and are capable of grinding down elite left-handed pitching.
Considering the results of the starters in this one, a bet on the over might look a little scary. The combination of McClanahan potentially coming out somewhat early or struggling versus an elite offense, and Dunning not truly being a dominant starter makes feel this is a good time to bet the over at 9 at -105 or better.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-122) | Bet to 9 and -105 |
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