MLB Odds, Picks for Guardians vs. Pirates
Pictured: Aaron Civale. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)
Guardians vs. Pirates Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -135 | 9 +100 / -120 | -1.5 +125 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+115 | 9 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -145 |
Aaron Civale, upon returning from his injury, has been pretty impressive for the Cleveland Guardians. He and the Guardians will face Rich Hill and the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that has struggled lately in the hitting department. Hill hasn't been that impressive, but neither has Cleveland's offense.
Both teams have struggled to generate offense and although neither starter is elite, this game should still go under the total.
Cleveland Guardians
Civale carries a 2.65 ERA against a 3.79 xERA, so even though there is some expected regression, he's still posting solid numbers. His Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 39th percentile and his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 76th percentile. He also owns a sub-20% strikeout rate and a sub-7% walk rate, so he pitches to contact. But with the way Pittsburgh has been hitting the ball, Civale should have a decent start.
The Guardians have four hitters — David Fry, Josh Bell, Amed Rosario and Josh Naylor — with a xwOBA over .320 off of lefty pitching this season. Otherwise, this lineup is pretty weak with a 97 wRC+ off of southpaws this month. Cleveland only strikes out 17.9% of the time, but the bottom of the order doesn't do much damage.
In relief, Cleveland owns a 3.85 xFIP and a 25.9% strikeout rate this month.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Hill's 4.76 ERA against a 5.40 xERA doesn't jump off the page, but he still ranks in the middle of the pack in both Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate. He is allowing more walks (8.9%), but Cleveland tends to swing, so that's unlikely to hurt him in this outing. Yes, Hill is definitely showing signs of age, but if he can get past the top of Cleveland's lineup, he could be in for a strong start.
The Pirates can't hit. They own a wRC+ of 66 off of righties this month and also have just a .605 OPS and a 25.2% strikeout rate. They do have five bats with a xwOBA over .320 xwOBA off of righties this season, but much like Cleveland, the bottom of the lineup is terrible. Look for Civale’s curve to give them some issues.
The Pirates relief staff is beginning to turn things around. They have three arms with an xFIP below 4.00 in the past month, so if Hill can make it through five innings, Pittsburgh has enough options to finish the game.
Guardians vs. Pirates Betting Pick
Hill isn't the best starter, but just needs to get through the top of Cleveland's lineup. The same goes for Civale, although he has proven he can retire some decent hitters. With both teams underachieving at the plate, aside from a few key hitters, look for pitching to reign supreme. Take this under from 9 (-110), and play it down to 8 (-120).
Pick: Guardians vs. Pirates Under | Play to 8 |
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