Expert Women’s World Cup Picks | Knockout Stage Predictions & Futures
Justin Setterfield/Getty. Pictured: Eugenie Le Sommer.
Ahead of the knockout stage of the Women's World Cup, we asked our soccer betting experts to deliver their favorite futures for the rest of the event.
Anthony Dabbundo and BJ Cunningham already connected on Morocco at 50-1 to get out of the group stage, and they've found their favorite futures for the remainder of the World Cup. We also have an extra pick from Johnathan Wright.
Read on to see how we're betting the futures market at the Women's World Cup.
Expert Women's World Cup Picks
Norway to Win the World Cup (+6600 via bet365)
I’m still trying to figure out Norway. Coming into the tournament they had one of the most aggressive profiles of any team, then they played a terrible opening match against New Zealand, had a pretty bad draw with Switzerland and then routed Philippines. However, they’re averaging 19.3 shots per 90 minutes, which is fifth-highest in the tournament, and have an xG per shot of 0.11, which is also top five. They’re getting high quality chances, they just couldn’t finish against New Zealand and Switzerland.
Norway also have 10 build up attacks, which is the most of any team in the tournament, and they are also top five in 10+ pass sequences. Let’s also not forget they’ve only conceded once so far, so nothing is really wrong with Norway.
As far as the path is concerned, it’s not great because if they win they will be getting the winner of Sweden and the United States, but that is going to be a highly emotional game, so Norway could very easily pick off either of those teams. Then, they’d likely get either Spain or Netherlands, who also haven’t been very impressive.
So, at this price for a team that has just as much talent as the rest of these teams that they are facing with solid underlying metrics so far, Norway are worth a shot.
– BJ Cunningham
France to Win the World Cup (+650 via FanDuel)
France had a really sluggish start to the tournament in the first half against Jamaica, but they’ve played at an elite level since then. The 2-1 win against Brazil was fully deserved by underlying numbers, and France’s excellence on set pieces proved the difference in that match in the late stages.
They conceded a 25-yard strike and a penalty to Panama, but Les Bleues had no issues dispatching them in the group finale, 6-3, despite resting both striker Eugenie Le Sommer and captain Wendie Renard. The French enter the knockout stage as the biggest favorite of any to win their round of 16 match against Morocco, and then they face a potential quarterfinal against the inconsistent Australia with Sam Kerr not necessarily at 100%.
France were my pre-tournament pick to win it all and if you’re not yet invested, I think it’s quite likely that France will end up in the semifinal against England. They’ll probably need to win two coin flips to win the World Cup (in the semifinal and final), but they’re the best combination of friendly path and worthy price left on the board.
Japan and Spain may have posted the gaudy underlying numbers, but both face a more difficult path and England’s price makes them difficult to bet at any real value given how closely contested the remaining field is. France at +650 remains my pick to lift the trophy later this month.
– Anthony Dabbundo
Lauren James to Win Golden Boot (+470 via FanDuel)
Lauren James has not only been the best player for England in the World Cup so far, but she's been the best player in the entire tournament. The 21-year-old is second in the Golden Boot race with three goals in just two starts. She only played 30 minutes in England's final group-stage match because they had already clinched their place in the round of 16.
The Chelsea attacker won't be coming off the bench again in the knockout rounds, though, and James doesn't need many chances to put the ball in the back of the net. She has had five shots in her 200 minutes played, and three of those were goals. That equates to a shot every 40 minutes and a goal every 1.7 shots.
Moreover, England are the current favorite to win the tournament at +250 and are +105 to reach the semifinals—an implied probability of 48.78%. Even if James' scoring averages are half of what they were in the group stage, she would still be scoring just over a goal per game, meaning she would have a 48.78% chance of reaching six goals. That number has been enough for the past three Golden Boot winners.
– Johnathan Wright
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