Braves vs Mets Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Saturday, August 12

A few months ago, a mid-August series between the Braves and Mets would have been one of the highlights on the entire August baseball calendar. After the Braves chased down the Mets to win the division last year and the Mets entered 2023 with the league's biggest payroll, the market expected these two to battle for division supremacy.

The Mets underachieved more than anyone in MLB though and sold a lot of their team for parts, which takes a lot of the luster out of Saturday's doubleheader at Citi Field.

The Braves recalled righty Allan Winans to start game one of the doubleheader, while the Mets counter with a bullpen game opened by Denyi Reyes. Both teams have a traditional starter listed for game two as Spencer Strider takes the mound against José Quintana.

Given how deep the Braves have gone into their farm system to find starting pitching this season, it’s quite surprising to see the optimistic projections for Winans overall. His MLB sample is too small to be meaningful, but he has a 27.8% strikeout rate and hasn’t been barreled yet in his MLB career. It’s only a 4.1 inning sample, but Winans had solid underlying numbers in the minor leagues.

The projections don’t indicate that he’ll generate a ton of strikeouts at the MLB level — THE BAT projects him for a 7.97 strikeout rate. But Winans has demonstrated the ability to limit the long ball in the upper levels of the minor leagues. He’s allowed 0.88 HR/9 in 113 Triple-A innings.

The Stuff+ metrics and overall ratings from the minors don’t offer a ton of optimism about Winans though. He had a 79 Stuff+ in his debut, which was in line with his minor league numbers.

It’s an entirely sinker ball and command based profile. That’s why his 44.4% first pitch strike rate in his first start is a bit troubling. The Mets have one of the lowest swing rates in the league and will crush him if he’s consistently behind in the count.

Spencer Strider is set to start game two. He’s been clearly the best starting pitcher in MLB this year by underlying metrics. His K-BB% is five percent better than every other starter, his Stuff+ is amongst the league’s best. The question is whether the lack of depth in his arsenal and his flooding the zone is why his homers and hard hit rates are higher than a typical ace.

Strider pitched quite poorly against the Pirates last start because of command issues, but rest of season projections still see him as the best starting pitcher in the final six weeks.

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Denyi Reyes is the opener for the Mets in Game 1. His fastball velocity is well below average, his command is below average (9.4% BB rate) and his Stuff+ grade is a 90 with just one above average pitch (slider). Reyes uses his extension to deceive some hitters and make his fastball play up, which is how he’s maintained a 25% strikeout rate thus far.

He’s not likely to pitch more than two innings, which leaves Jimmy Yacabonis and Grant Hartwig as the two first reliever options behind Reyes. Hartwig has questions about his command and Yacabonis’ strikeout rate is well below league average.

The Mets will have a hard time getting 27 outs without fully taxing the bullpen in game one, and manager Buck Showalter will need to find a tricky balance given the quality of the Braves' top ranked offense.

Quintana will get the start in game two and he’s also seen a tick downward in his stuff since returning from injury. He had a late career renaissance in Pittsburgh and St. Louis last year, but his 79 Stuff+ and declining zone rate means he’s relying more and more on nibbling around the edges to get by.

The Braves will swing and miss but they don’t chase a ton, so that’s a difficult matchup for Quintana as he will have to come into the zone against the Braves barreling machine.

The market has downgraded the Mets a lot following their trade deadline sell off, but the lineup for game one on Saturday could be especially shaky. Francisco Lindor was scratched due to right side soreness on Friday and that could mean he sits game one. Francisco Alvarez may only play one game in the doubleheader as well — and Starling Marte remains out with an injury.

The Mets lineup will be key to watch but the total is too high for game one at 11 despite the pitching issues if Lindor and/or Alvarez don’t play.

As for game two, it will be important to monitor game one bullpen usage before betting it, but Atlanta at -215 or better looks cheap to me given Strider’s massive advantage over an overvalued Quintana.

The Bets:

Game 1: Under 11 (-115) if Lindor or Alvarez sit

Game 2: Atlanta -215 or better