Angels vs Tigers Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Thursday, July 27
Pictured: Spencer Torkelson. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)
Angels vs. Tigers Odds
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -140 | 8.5 +100 / -120 | -1.5 +120 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 8.5 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -140 |
Shohei Ohtani gets the start in the first game of a doubleheader between the Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers. The Tigers will counter with their ace, Michael Lorenzen. Ohtani has been questionable lately with a 7.71 ERA in July (17 1/3 innings), while Lorenzen hasn’t allowed a run this month. Ohtani has struggled with control in July and has walked eight batters while striking out 21. Meanwhile, Lorenzen has only allowed 14 baserunners.
Given that both teams have strength at the top of the batting order, and that Detroit has a little more to give in relief, the Tigers hold value on the moneyline.
Los Angeles Angels
Ohtani is possibly the best player who has ever graced a baseball diamond. However, he’s allowed a 10.7% Barrel Rate this season, which is a tad concerning. Yes, his Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 83rd percentile, but his Hard-Hit Rate is closer to average (59th percentile). His walk rate is 10.2%, a big increase from 6.7% in 2022. That being the case, the Tigers may have baserunners early and often.
In July, the Angels have produced more offense than the Tigers, but the gap isn’t as big as many would expect. The Angels have six players with an xwOBA over .333 and have a 104 wRC+ and 9.2% walk rate off of righties this month.
In relief, Los Angeles has struggled mightily. The Angels have a 4.98 xFIP with a 12.7% walk rate. Only Matt Moore and Aaron Loup have a sub-4.00 xFIP on the season, so the Angels bullpen is far from reliable.
Detroit Tigers
Lorenzen has a 3.49 ERA against a 4.22 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 28th percentile and his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 48th percentile. He also only walks 6.5% of opposing hitters, which should provide a boost to Detroit’s bullpen as he’ll likely work deeper into this game.
Now, the Tigers have five hitters with an xwOBA over .330 this month off of righties. They don’t have Ohtani’s bat in the lineup, but they have enough to match the Angels, if they can get on base.
The Tigers have the edge in relief. They have a 4.35 xFIP this month and also have four pitchers below the 4.00 mark. Outside of his first start in April, Lorenzen has logged at least five innings in every start. This start shouldn’t be any different.
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Angels vs. Tigers Betting Pick
Lorenzen is trending up while Ohtani may be experiencing fatigue from carrying the Angels while Mike Trout and others are injured. The Tigers can match the Angels' offensive output and also boast a better bullpen. With that being the case, Detroit should win this game.
It is tough to fade Ohtani, but Lorenzen is the guy to back. Take the Tigers +105.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline | Play to +105 |
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