Angels vs Padres Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Tuesday, July 4
Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Xander Bogaerts.
Angels vs. Padres Odds
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -102 | 7.5 +102 / -124 | -1.5 +162 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-116 | 7.5 +102 / -124 | +1.5 -196 |
Things could not have lined up better for Independence Day in San Diego, as Joe Musgrove and Shohei Ohtani will offer an exciting pitching matchup for what will surely be a massive Independence Day crowd.
Ohtani has pitched to a 3.02 ERA across 95 1/3 innings, but will be a slight underdog versus Joe Musgrove, who owns an ERA of 3.80 across 66 1/3 as he has begun to click into top gear.
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Los Angeles Angels
Ohtani's xERA of 3.38 does suggest he is due for a little negative regression from his ERA of 3.02. His stuff continues to rate extremely well, but a lack of command has remained a flaw over his last five outings.
In his last five starts, Ohtani has pitched to an ERA of 3.26 with a WHIP of 1.21. His chase rate is now in the bottom 20% of all pitchers, and his walk rate is in the bottom 25%. Ohtani's electric stuff (123 Stuff+ rating) should keep his floor quite high, but it does seem likely his current ERA will trend downward as his xERA suggests moving forward.
The Angels sit one spot above the Padres in wRC+ over the last 30 days with a stellar clip of 121. They own a BB/K ratio of 0.42 and are getting steady results as a side across most of the lineup as opposed to what we have traditionally seen.
San Diego Padres
After a late start to the season which resulted in modest results, Musgrove is back to his dominant ways, and should be one of the better starters in the NL the rest of the way.
Musgrove put up a 2.93 ERA and 3.27 xERA in the 2022 season. He is clearly back in top form with a 1.91 ERA across his last seven starts. In those 42 1/3 innings he owns a WHIP of just 1.08, and has pitched to stellar expected rates.
Musgrove's arsenal rates well with a Stuff+ rating of 103. He has located quite well, earning a Location+ of 104.
Opponent's own a hard-hit rate of just 31% versus Musgrove this season, which is the best mark in baseball among pitchers to have thrown over 32 innings. They have chased 37% of all pitches, and 50% of his pitches with two strikes.
His fastball averages 2,539 RPMs, which is the highest mark in baseball among starters to throw over 95 innings. Opposing batters own an xBA of just .199 versus Musgrove's four seamer, and the need to guard against that pitch sets up the rest of his deep arsenal effectively.
Prior to Monday's strong showing, over the last 30 days the Padres have hit to a wRC+ of 113, with a wOBA of .351. Their 0.50 BB/K ratio during that time is second to only the Braves.
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Angels vs. Padres Betting Pick
San Diego's inability to come up with hits with RISP this season has kept what should be a high-powered offense largely under wraps, but things have been on the up and up recently. Their patient process at the plate still has been effective over the last month and should cause problems for Ohtani, who is not getting many chases outside of the zone.
Musgrove has been downright dominant of late, and is likely to continue putting together elite results moving forward.
The Padres record to this point makes a price of -115 look slightly underwhelming. Two months from now, however, we might be looking at this matchup thinking -115 was actually a great number, and I would bet San Diego down to -125.
Pick: Padres ML (-125 or Better) |
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